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On 29 December a large European customer of IBM's, Hadleigh Marshall n.v., posted an
open letter to Steve Mills from Mr. Ian J. Tree, calling for IBM to release IBM Lotus Notes/Domino to the open source community. The way Hadleigh Marshall sees the market, IBM Lotus Notes/Domino is dead as a commercial market. As they put it,
It is my contention that such a move [to open source for Notes/Domino -- ed.] would not only enhance the strategic position of the IBM Software Group portfolio but would also transform and re-energize significant parts of the Software market as a whole.
Over recent years we have seen the decreasing traction of the Domino product line among enterprise customers, lower conquest rates in small enterprises and a lack of penetration in the SMB market. This decline in position of the product has continued despite clear IBM commitment to the ongoing development, marketing and support of the product line. Competitors in the messaging and collaboration space are increasingly applying the 'legacy' tag to the product line and winning conversion projects that result in more expensive and less functional solutions for the existing customer base. As this FUD increases, the demise of the product line will accelerate. I will not dwell here on an analysis of the decline of the product; I merely note that this decline will be irreversible unless there is a fundamental change in the market positioning of the product line. If we are to arrest and reverse this decline, we need a paradigm shift in the marketplace, not a feature review.
**Note: Emphasis Mine.
Interesting proposition. I have heard rumblings about moving the Notes/Domino stack to open source in the past, and the argument against it has been fairly strong - "We have seen double-digit growth in Notes/Domino sales in the last X years", "Moving it to open source will reduce our ability to properly support the product", "Moving it to open source will surely introduce a myriad of versions, bugs, etc. into the code, and we won't be able to guarantee code integrity.", and so on.
And while I can definitely see Mr. Tree's point, I understand IBM's position. First, if you are to believe the hype (especially what will surely be good news at this year's
Lotusphere), then you will be led to believe that Lotus has had double-digit growth yet again. In fact, Ed Brill just recently listed in his
"Blogging Year in Review", he stated that, "As I predicted at the start of the year, the
Notes is dead meme is dead. Even Microsoft has stopped trying to convince customers that this is the case. If anything, this year's incredible amount of activity around the Notes/Domino family has assured a long and successful road ahead." So, if you listen to IBM and Ed, the market for Lotus continues to remain viable and strong.
But what really matters is what
you, the Lotus Community, think - specifically those of you who buy and renew Lotus Notes/Domino licenses. This will be the telling observation. Do people continue to buy and renew Lotus Notes/Domino? Or, is it as Mr. Tree says - that "the demise of the product line will accelerate". Sales will tell who's right.
What do I think? Well, I think that Mr. Tree, and Mr. Brill, are both right. And both wrong. I think the truth of what they believe is somewhere in the middle. Do I see "impending doom" for Notes/Domino? Not yet - with "yet" being the operative word. Eventually sales will crumble, and Notes/Domino will finally die a commercial death. It is inevitable, and it is actually quite remarkable that it has lasted this long to be honest. Almost 20 years is a very long time in the IT world. And while I think it is always smart to take what IBM says - and even what Ed says - with a grain or two of salt, I do believe that the market for Notes/Domino is strong - for now.
One other way to tell the health of a product's market is to take a look at the third party/ISV market for the product. Are the ISVs closing shop, or are they still in business? Are new ISVs coming into the market? Is there excitement in the overall market, including the ISV market? Are they releasing new releases on a regular basis? These are the questions you should be asking yourself. I know that all businesses are being hit by this global recession, but I can tell you that here at Teamstudio we're still strong, and we have no plans to go away or move away from the Notes/Domino market.
One final observation from this open letter. Mr. Tree stated that IBM has a "lack of penetration in the SMB market". I have to say this part of his analysis is
right. IBM continues to fumble with attempting to serve the IBM market; and while I know they have made half-hearted attempts with bundling and packaging, there is still a lack of penetration at the SMB level. I think that a decent amount of this has to do with a disconnect between what IBM thinks is the definition for SMB, and what the general market thinks is the definition of SMB. IBM will continue to struggle with the
real SMB market until there is a meeting of the minds on what is the true definition of SMB.
One final thought. IBM has not shown a proclivity towards releasing intellectual property into open source, outside of what was needed to get the
Eclipse Foundation going and happy. IBM is still the winner,
every year, for the most patents applied for by a single entity. It values its intellectual property a great deal, and I cannot see it releasing all the amazing intellectual property contained in Lotus Notes/Domino anytime soon.
So what does this mean for us? It means we have to try harder and fight harder to keep Notes/Domino viable. We need to make sure the CxO-level executives are made aware of the great new features in new releases of Notes/Domino, as well as the plethora of products available to make their Notes/Domino experience even better. I think this is necessary because CxOs aren't stupid - and if they are made aware of what's available, and are also reminded of how much of their corporate intellectual property is already stored in Notes/Domino, the only choice that remains is to stay with Notes/Domino.
At least for now
Rock